The Daily Bread Mailbag returns with Stephen "Breadman" Edwards tackling topics such as Errol Spence vs. Terence Crawford, Gervonta Davis vs. Ryan Garcia, Miguel Cotto vs. Oscar De La Hoya, and more.
Greetings Breadman! I hope you and your family are healthy, doing well, and enjoying the summer. I have two questions that I would like to get your insight on. 1) I went to the Ryan Garcia-Javier Fortuna fight this past weekend! Garcia put on a great show and had a solid performance as expected. I have no doubt that Garcia wants to fight Tank and Tank wants the fight with Garcia. I like both fighters, but would favor Tank 2-1 due to his experience and being more polish at this point of his career. Both fighters are capable of ending the fight with a ko! I hope all parties involved (Golden Boy-DAZN & PBC-Mayweather promotions) can make this exciting fight happen! I believe it would bring in the necessary revenue for all sides to be happy. With Tank turning 28 this fall and having 2 fights left with Mayweather promotions, I think it’s important for him to have a 50/50 or 60/40 fight at this point in his career. I always believe the promotional company works for the fighter and not the other way around. Therefore, Tank has to make that fight happen on his side and not just keep fighting under the PBC umbrella his entire career.
2) Winky Wright was a fighter that didn’t get his big fight until the age of 32 because many fighters avoided him earlier in his career. If I recall correctly, he fought and beat Shane Mosley in back to back fights. Let’s face it, when you’re a southpaw, very technical fighter, and you don’t bring in a lot of revenue, not worth the risk to many A side fighters. This leads me to ask about a fighter who you know very well, the talented Jaron Ennis! Hoping that Spence Jr vs Crawford happens in November, and I think by next year both those fighters might move to 154 lbs. as well. Therefore, I don’t see a Virgil Ortiz Jr, Connor Benn, Ugas, Thurman or any fighter in 147 lbs. being able to beat a fighter like Ennis who will only get better with time. Is there any fighter that could move up from 140 Ibs or is at 147 Ibs now that could give Ennis a great fight? As always, thank you for your insight and weekly mailbags!
Kind regards, Eman
Bread’s Response: You didn’t really ask me a question in part 1. You sort of made a comment and alluded to Tank having to make the fight at this point with Garcia. My take is simple. Both fighters need the fight. I’m super high on Tank as a fighter. I believe he’s a P4P level fighter. But he’s only won 1 world title if you don’t count Regular WBA titles and that’s the IBF title at 130lbs vs Jose Pedraza. As much as this is a business and Tank and Garcia have both proven this is a business first. At some point your legacy will suffer if you don’t take and win certain kinds of fights.
Floyd Mayweather who represents Tank and Oscar De La Hoya who represents Garcia both won REAL world titles all throughout their careers. No regular titles. I could be wrong but I don’t think either won vacant titles either. Both of those guys were HOF level fighters by the time they were Garcia’s age and they were firmly in the HOF by the time they were Tank’s age. So if you aren’t going to fight the champions, this is the type of fights that solidifies the business approach.
Tank and Garcia are the biggest draws in the division. So I think Tank needs the fight. But guess what, Garcia needs it more. At least Tank has won a world title and faced some reputable names. Jose Pedraza, Leo Santa Cruz and Mario Barrios are reputable names. Garcia has not even challenged for a world title yet and he won an eliminator and could’ve had a shot at the WBC title and didn’t take it. Garcia has also been linked to some big names and the fights never came off. For as talented as he is, he’s not taken as serious as Tank is because of these things. Now Garcia seems to want to campaign at 140lbs without ever having challenged for a title at 130 and 135. That’s very telling to me. Most times when Uber talents like Garcia who are big for the weight, challenge for titles early at their start out and start moving up. See Oscar, Shane, Floyd etc…… Again Garcia has been a pro since 2016, and still hasn’t fallen into a title shot. Fighters with Garcia’s level of popularity and promotional backing can get title shots whenever they want for the most part. Don’t let anyone tell you anything different. So for him not to have fought for a title, tells me something. I’m also very high on Garcia. I think he has special offensive talent, reflexes, punch release and sharpness. But he had to need more time developing other areas, or else he would have fought a schedule similar to Oscar’s. They could have followed Oscar’s blueprint. Same height. Same weights. Same good looks. Same left hook. But they didn’t. So Garcia needs this fight probably a little more than Davis does in terms of credibility.
I think 140lbs will be a sticking point with the negotiations. I know Tank fought Mario Barrios at 140lbs but he was testing the waters. He struggled in that fight with Barrios’s size. Garcia is more talented than Barrios. Garcia was a lightweight up until his last fight. The world assumed they would fight at 135lbs. Now with the new caveat of 140lbs, that Garcia has put forth, I think it will be a sticking point in the negotiations. Both fighters are stars. But Tank will assume the A side roll and I could be wrong but I don’t believe his team will give that up. Especially since Garcia has demanded it.
However, I think it’s a great fight. I favor Tank. I think it’s 55/45. Garcia has a real chance to win because Tank is short and he takes time to warm up, get his distance and land his shots. And he loses rounds. But my instincts tell me if they fought next Garcia’s gift will be his curse. He locks in on his big shots, and there is gap where he can big clipped. And Tank is a clutch sharpshooter, who computes his opponent’s timing.
As far as betting lines. I say Tank opens at -200 and it will go down. Garcia +180.Ennis is the mandatory for the IBF belt. I believe at some point he’s going to get a vacant title shot. Then at that point the highest ranked available fighter will fight him. Some fighters will have the luxury to say no. Some won’t. I can see a fighter like Stanious, fighting him. He’s a tough guy who’s has a hardcore fan base but he probably won’t have the luxury to turn down a career high purse.
Ennis will have to just win and win impressively and in time fights will arise. I can’t just single out fighters who will and won’t fight him because it will have to be worth it to them. Right now, most of his prospective opponents don’t feel it’s worth it because he will probably beat them and embarrass them. Ennis’s team will have to do a good job with him in terms of his market value. Because they are going to have to offer guys career high pay days in order to get them to fight him.
Sup Bread,
I just recently heard a fighter talk about a “smoker” fight. Are you able to add any knowledge or share any experiences about how this works and does it still happen ?
Take Care, Aaron from Cleveland
Bread’s Response: Smoker fighters are fights that don’t count on the official record. But they can have a real referee. Real judges. Real gloves. Only the fighters and their teams are present. It’s usually done to get an elite fighter the real feel who has been off for a while and he doesn’t want it to count on their record.
Hello again Mr Edwards! Three questions about Miguel Cotto today!1) Who wins head-to-head between Oscar De La Hoya (pre-Shane Mosley I version) and Miguel Cotto (pre-Antonio Margarito I version)? I think Oscar De La Hoya. If you agree, how competitive do you think Cotto will be? 2) Who wins head-to-head between Juan Manuel Marquez (2012 Pacquiao KO version) vs Miguel Cotto (2014 Sergio Martinez KO version). I am interested in these specificities because Marquez and Cotto scored career-defining post-prime upset KOs in these fights and it would be fun to pit them against each other. 3) Also, how do you think the three rank in terms of legacy? Judging by your response last week, I think Oscar De La Hoya has the best resume. But who would be second between Marquez and Cotto?
Bread’s Response: Cotto is severely underrated. But Cotto is a great fighter! He has actually outperformed Oscar vs common opponents Manny Pacquiao and Shane Mosley. Oscar outperformed him just slightly vs Floyd Mayweather. Slightly!
I would pick Oscar to win but not by a landslide. Cotto had master timing. A real heavy handed jab. He was truly elite. But I think Oscar’s range and hand speed would give him the edge. I say Oscar but close. Cotto that beat Martinez is too big for the Marquez that beat Pacquiao. I think Marquez’s legacy will be slightly greater because of how he fought Pacquiao.
But fight for fight I think Cotto is right with him. But because Marquez is smaller and competed with Pacquiao at welterweight better than Cotto did I think his legacy will be viewed as better. But it’s so close I wouldn’t argue with anyone who picked Cotto. Cotto did everything Marquez did. He beat the same level of fighters, through 4 weight divisions just like Marquez.
I actually would be more comfortable with Cotto against elite boxers than I would Marquez. Marquez struggled more vs elite boxers. Cotto was a superb boxer. I personally think their legacies are pretty much even with Cotto winning head to head if they fought. But history will most likely view Marquez as greater because of the Pacquiao ko win, and never having been kod.
Sup Bread,
Great prediction on Ryan Garcia getting a spectacular showcase knock out. It is pretty obvious that he is definitely a left hooker and the bulk of his knockouts come via the left. As a trainer, can you train your boxer to over index on one hand and is that even a good idea considering you know it’s coming. I understand that you have to defend against both hands but he does his real damage with his lead hook and counter to the body and head. Finally, who wins and can you rank how they finishe in round robin tournament where everyone has to fight each other and everyone is at their prime . (is anyone undefeated?) 1)Evander Holyfield 2)Ezzard Charles 2)Dwight Qawi 3)Archie Moore 4)Roy Jones Jr. 5)Bob Foster 6)Michael Spinx do you have a favorite arena for your fighters to compete in?
Take Care, Aaron from Cleveland
Bread’s Response: Thanks I have seen that Match up formula several times. Garcia vs Fortuna, was no different than what his promoter Oscar De La hoya had vs Jorge Paez or Julio Cesar Chavez. When you know, you know. great matchmaking.
There are plenty of fighters who favor 1 hand over the other. Andre Ward (left), Oscar de La Hoya(left), Miguel Cotto (left), Marvin Hagler (right), Winky Wright (right). I will say this. A fighter only has 2 hands. So it’s not a huge deal if a fighter favors 1 hand significantly more. The fighters who do, know how to disguise it in a way where they can still land their favorite shots. It's not as big of a deal as people think.
I think Spinks, Charles or Holyfield would win. I can't choose 1.
Hello Breadman, I must appreciate your dedication towards the mailbag. I wanted to throw my 2 cents and see what you think. The Errol Spence that turned up for the Ugas fight would be hard to beat. Not like he was ever an easy pick. And for the first time I clearly observed what you meant when you said he fights just like he trains. Especially on the pads. The sequence, the speed and punch selection are all alike, no frills.
Now another thing is that Terence Crawford is actually the kind of blend of fighter that, if ever, has a shot at beating Errol Spence. I say this because you need a fighter with a bag of tools and tricks who's known to find a way to get past his opponents just like Bud has shown over the years. I have also noticed Spence's footwork and confirmed something, he keeps a wonderful balance. He doesn't move his lead shoulder or head beyond a certain arc around or between the lead foot. He fences or catches his jabs like some automatic device designed to snap forth and back against every slight opening in his opponents defence. His step overs also hardly cover too much distance. What a sight to behold. Fundamentals 101.I would like your take on the single thing Bud does well that could give him victory if the fight gets announced. As of right now it looks like a Spence win to me.
Bread’s Response: I believe Spence vs Crawford will be the Fight of Decade in terms of match up value. The winner is most likely an ATG. And if the loser performs well he is too. Very few match ups provide that type of significance. Spence keeps it simple and keeping it simple works for him. He doesn’t try to do too much and because of that he does a lot. He never forgets to use his jab. He never forgets to go to the body. He always has his hands up. Spence is a heavy load.
Crawford in my opinion can fight better off the fly. He can improvise more. He’s more creative. I believe he processes faster. I also believe he’s quicker on the draw in terms of landing ko punches. I think Crawford’s biggest advantage is landing kill shots late. Crawford computes data and he lands shots that almost no one else in boxing can. I feel like that can be an issue for Spence late. Crawford has a way of getting shots through that it doesn’t seem like can get through. Late in fights these shots are devastating. I think the fight comes down to, if Spence can take Crawford’s late clutch shots and does he have the sense of awareness to avoid them.
Can you think of boxers who struggled with drugs or drinking problems, which led to their downfall? At the same time, can you think of any boxer who did have a problem, but it seemed like their careers didn’t suffer from it? Do a lot of boxers drink? Party? And how detrimental is it to their success? Does the old saying, “pick your poison” apply here? What I mean by this, is do all boxers have a vice that could potentially tarnish their careers or performances? Maybe as simple as a boxer who fools around with women too much and neglects his training as a result and it’s a matter of self management?
Bread’s Response: So many fighters of the 80s struggled with drugs there are too many to name. The human body craves 4 things: Food, Water, Sex and Sleep. So fighters usually deprive themselves of 3 of them. Food, Sex and Water although they should be drinking plenty of water. Most fighters cut their water intake down so they can see the weight they want on the scales.
So being a fighter in itself is hard but when fighters complain I tell them they chose boxing. So it’s no need to complain. Find another job if you don’t like it. Lots of fighters drink and party. They just don’t admit it because if they lose or have bad performances people will throw the drinking and partying up in their face. So they hide that part of their lives. But yes they do. Very few fighters drink 0%. Some obviously more than others.
Most fighters love sex like all healthy men. And when they have to abstain for weeks at a time, it makes them more eager to have sex after fights. Trust me I know. I ask my fighters not to have sex at least 3 to 4 weeks before fights. And they get grumpy close to fights. I like that. And it’s not just the sex. It’s the process of getting the sex. The dating. The late dinners. The being outside at clubs etc. All of those things take away from a fighters focus in camp. Discipline is the key. Some fighters can get away with certain things. Some can’t get away with anything without paying for it. Sometimes it takes it longer to show up on guys. Everyone is different. Everyone has a different body.
Hey brother,
Only time for a quick email and sadly in a sign of the populist times (Kalyug) I have to ask about Jake Paul. You had a guy last week call fix on the fight vs Rahman Jnr coming up. I agree and I just want to raise two points that make this fight suspicious.1) Paul has previously only fought (and mainly called out) fighters that are 170lbs. Woodley, Askren (who fought at 155lb too) and chasing Masvidal and Nate Diaz (but not Bisping and Anderson Silva who both are free to fight him). What do we think about a guy going from forcing 170lb guys to fight at 195lb, to him now taking on someone that once weighed 272lbs? Is that not at least weird? Possibly suspicious?2) How the hell is Jake Paul favorite according to various bookies? You always say those oddsmakers know more than most, so are they pulling something or do they really believe a guy that has NEVER fought a professional boxer before will beat a 12-1 prospect from a boxing background?
God bless Breadman!
Bread’s Response: 1) How do you know Rahman weighed 272lbs before? I think he’s a smaller heavyweight. I believe his dad may have been bigger and they share the same name but Rahman Jr. is not a big heavyweight. I do think the catchweight will effect him because he doesn’t have a lot of time to make the weight but hey it’s boxing and you have to do what you have to do to get to the money. I’m sure this is his biggest payday by far.
2) I saw that Jake Paul is the favorite also. And yes you’re right the oddsmakers know what they are doing. I believe he’s the favorite for a few reasons. Jake Paul can fight a little bit. He has some natural instincts, he has heavy hands and he gets to hand pick his opponents. Rahman Jr. was just kod in his last fight just a few months ago. The catchweight favors Jake Paul. If you bring a fighter down in weight who was just kod you’re stacking the deck. When you lose weight, you just don’t lose it from your love handles. Your organs lose it too. Your brain will have less fluid on it. Less fat on it. Everything shrinks down. So if you lose too much in a short period of time it effects your punch resistance. Lastly I think the oddsmakers feel Rahman Jr. was picked for a reason. Hence Paul is the favorite. Let’s see what happens.
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Daily Bread Mailbag: Tank-Garcia, Spence-Crawford, Cotto, More - BoxingScene.com
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